Base case · 100% non-alcoholic portfolio

Favorable path to $10B

Year 5 ~$2.2B · Year 10 $10B sales · $3B profit

Interactive house model across 50 non-alcoholic brands. Margins ramp to 30% EBITDA with 65% gross margin by Year 10 — built on zero-proof alternatives inspired by alcohol categories.

Analysis

What the model is saying

Path to $10B on NA brands

Revenue compounds from non-alcoholic flagships into a 50-brand house. Year 5 lands near $2.2B. Year 10 hits $10B sales with top-5 NA brands contributing ~$4.0B.

NA brand economics

Gross margin expands to 65%. Marketing 16% · sales/distribution 10% · G&A 6% · R&D 3% leaves 30% EBITDA — $3B profit at Year 10.

Channel mix (NA advantage)

DTC, on-premise, premium retail, travel, grocery/lifestyle and B2B. Non-alcoholic flexibility opens channels classic spirits cannot easily reach.

Portfolio structure

5 expanded NA flagships · 20 growth · 25 emerging. All 0.0% ABV. Stage-gated capital — heroes fund the house narrative.

Year 10 margin bridge

From NA liquid to 30% profit

Revenue (100% NA brands)100%

Gross margin65%

Marketing−16%

Sales & distribution−10%

G&A / platform−6%

R&D / innovation−3%

EBITDA / operating profit30% · $3B

Assumptions are management planning inputs for the base case — not audited forecasts. Tax, duty and advertising rules require market-by-market validation. Portfolio is non-alcoholic only.

House P&L ambition on non-alcoholic premium mix + platform leverage.

Flagship contribution · all NA